US Midterms: Women Voters Helped Drive the ‘Blue Wave’

Women did not only turn out to vote in significant numbers, but they were also elected in historic fashion, like Gina Hinojosa in Texas, who won an upset victory over incumbent Republican Greg Abbott to be elected the state's first Hispanic governor. Cover picture of Audrey Hepburn for Life magazine in 1955, photographed by Philippe Hatsman.

By Musica Lorence

The 2026 US midterm elections delivered a decisive blow to Donald Trump’s Republican party. Democrats successfully flipped seven seats in the Senate, gaining a decisive majority. This turnaround was mirrored in the House of Representatives, where the Democrats could end up taking 258 seats against 177 for the Republicans.

Women voters played a significant part in this Democratic party “blue wave”. Estimates suggest 64 million women voted in the elections, compared with 56 million men, comprising 53% of all voters. Exit polls say 61% of women voted Democrat while 38% voted Republican, a 13-percentage point shift in party support compared with the 2024 presidential election.

This was also a bigger swing than most pollsters had predicted. Pre-election polling indicated that 56% of women in the US preferred Democratic party candidates, compared with 37% who said they preferred Republican ones. These figures suggested a possible 9-percentage point shift in support.

The Democrats performed particularly well in several demographic groups. Of all the young women (aged 18 to 29) who voted, 70% are thought to have chosen Democrat candidates, up 9 percentage points from 61% in 2024.

The vast majority of black women (93%) also voted for a Democratic candidate, versus 6% for a Republican. And a substantial portion of Latino (68%) or Hispanic (74%) women supported the Democrats, against 30% for the Republicans.

The support of black women for Democratic candidates was marginally up compared with 2024, by 5 percentage points. But the shift among Hispanic women was much larger. Support for the Democrats in this cohort rose 28 percentage points compared with 2024.

Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first black

woman governor of any US state after her 

Georgia win. 

Women did not only turn out to vote in significant numbers, they were also elected in historic fashion. Deb Haaland won her race in New Mexico, making her the first Native American woman to be elected governor of a US state. Keisha Lance Bottoms, meanwhile, became the first black woman to serve as governor of any US state after winning in Georgia.

Illinois became the first state to be represented simultaneously in the Senate by two women of colour, following the election of Juliana Stratton. Stratton will serve alongside incumbent senator Tammy Duckworth. And several states with decades-long conservative representation elected women to government for the first time.

Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee and Ohio elected their first female governors, while in South Carolina Annie Andrews was elected as the state’s first female US senator by vote. For the first time in US history, at least 100 women are predicted to serve in the House of Representatives simultaneously.

Explaining the vote

The result of the midterms was driven by widespread voter discontent over kitchen table issues like the rising cost of living. This has been exacerbated by the White House’s implementation of global tariffs and its costly war with Iran, with US gas prices increasing by 50% since the start of the conflict.

The increase in fuel costs has had a direct impact on the cost of manufacturing, shipping and distributing everyday goods, triggering inflation on household essentials. Figures released by the US Department of Labor in October confirmed that the annual inflation rate rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September.

Research suggests that, across the world, women are disproportionately affected by inflation. A World Economic Forum report from 2022 found that women are less likely than men to have salaries that keep pace with inflation.

The same report also found that inflation is generally higher for products aimed at women. In the UK, for instance, the price of women’s formal shoes increased by 75% in 2021, while those for men increased by only 14%. This pattern was repeated across various other products.

The Women’s Budget Group, a London-based non-profit organisation, said earlier in 2026: “We know from past crises that women are hit first and worst when costs rise. Lower average incomes and savings mean they spend a greater share on essentials.”

The rising cost of living was a key factor in the 

Republican election loss in the US midterms.

The group added: “Women, as the shock absorbers of poverty, are too often left stretching budgets, hunting for discounts, skipping meals and going without to keep their families afloat.”

In addition to feeling the effects of rising prices, there is intense disapproval in the US of the Trump administration’s assaults on female freedom and support systems. These include funding cuts for reproductive and family healthcare programmes and restricted access to IVF fertility treatment and abortion services.

These legislative restrictions, built on far-right ideologies, have directly harmed women in the US. Maria Antonieta Alcalde Castro is the director-general of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, a non-profit organisation dedicated to sexual and reproductive health and rights. After the midterm election results were announced, she said:

“Nearly two years of attacks on women’s rights, including the dismantling of USAID [US Agency for International Development] and the defunding of family planning, have forced nearly 1,400 clinics across our federation to close. These midterms are a glimmer of hope that Congress will now hold the line, protect the funding that remains, and demand accountability for the damage done.”

Whether this hope is realised remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: women were central to the 2026 midterms, not only for the scale of the votes they cast but also for the seats where women were elected.

Musica Lorence, PhD Candidate in Global Political Economics and Gender, King's College London

The Democrats’ ‘Blue Tsunami’ is a Strong Repudiation of Donald Trump: Now, They Will Look to Replicate it in 2028

Leading potential presidential 2028 candidate Jon Ossoff, defeated Republican Mike Collins, retaining his Georgia Senate seat as Democrats recorded historic gains in crucial midterm contests. 

By David Smith

American voters have inflicted a generational defeat on the Republican Party in the midterm elections, with Democrats winning control of both houses of Congress: the House of Representatives and Senate. Donald Trump’s party has been defeated in states where it hadn’t lost for a generation – or longer: Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. These have been red states for quite some time, but this shows the Republicans are really suffering in their own heartland.

While Democrats were widely predicted to take the House and had a reasonable chance to win the Senate, no one could have predicted at the beginning of 2026 such a huge “blue wave” washing over the US by November.

In fact, Republicans barely held on in Senate races in Louisiana and Florida – states that have long been firmly red – and the race in Mississippi will go down to the wire. And Democrats held on everywhere that was contested: in most cases, it wasn’t even close.

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So, what does it mean?

One of the very significant lessons from the Democrats’ crushing victory is the party’s ability to accommodate a broad church of candidates and ideas. For example, Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim socialist, won a Senate seat in Michigan, while Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, won in Kansas.

Even though there’s been a lot of heartache and internal wrangling for the Democrats about left versus centre politics, this just shows that when they win by a big enough margin there’s room for everybody in the party.

This means the Senate and House will look very different from the way they looked before the midterms.

And the message for the Republicans? This is unquestionably a repudiation of Trump, and this is backed up by his record-low approval ratings, and the fact that four in 10 voters in exit polls said they were motivated to send a message to the sitting president.

He has launched one of the most unpopular wars in American history in Iran, which has had direct effects on people’s lives and livelihoods, raising the cost of living for everyone.

And while he has typically distanced himself from any responsibility for the election result, there is no question the way Americans feel about the economy is very closely linked to the way they feel about Trump. And this is a decisive repudiation.

It will take longer to see the effect on Trumpism or the MAGA movement.

The question is, after such a loss, will his grip on the Republican Party now loosen? He’s not going to be on the ballot again – no matter what he might say – so he’ll be a lame duck president. So will this result make Republicans turn away from Trump?

They will have some serious considerations: what if inflation is still high in 2028, or the Iran War is still going? The results of the presidential election could be even more devastating for Republicans.

Another interesting aspect of the midterms result is that the Democrats successfully took the focus off all the issues Republicans have seen as winners in recent years, such as the culture wars (in particular trans issues) and immigration.

In this election, nothing compared to cost of living, especially when people could see direct links between Trump’s policies and their bills.

What will it mean for the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency?

Trump has no choice but to accept the result. When a party loses by a really large margin, there’s no way of contesting the results.

He’s made some contradictory comments about how he might respond: he has both threatened to be “Mr Veto”, but also said he can work with the Democrats.

It’s much more likely he will not be able to advance his legislative agenda any further. As president, he can make executive orders and has some foreign policy levers at his disposal, but there will be very real limits on what he can do. He is also likely to be impeached for a third time.

It’ll be interesting to see how serious the Democrats are about ending the Iran war. If they have the political will, they could now threaten to hold up defence spending or shut down the government to try to force a genuine peace deal.

But extricating the US from this war is not a simple matter, given how committed it is at this point.

In general, Republicans will see this as a very serious warning for the 2028 elections. There are some races they could have lost this year and didn’t. If the public mood is the same in 2028 as it is now, the Republicans are in for an even worse defeat.

The Democrats, on the other hand, will see themselves as having a very real chance of taking back the presidency in 2028. One of the big midterm winners was Jon Ossoff, a young Jewish senator from Georgia whose race was called almost immediately after the polls closed. Georgia voted for Trump in 2024.

Ossoff is popular in all parts of the Democratic Party. With his re-election, he has shown he is a compelling speaker who can win in Trump country. He’s the Democrat whose profile has been boosted the most in these midterms, and he’ll certainly be one to watch in 2028, as will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was re-elected to the House for a fifth term and is still only 37.

Any lessons for the rest of the world?

This shows there are real limits to the Trump style of politics in democracies – the relentlessly attention-seeking, culture-warring, crude, and never apologising style of politics.

In the end, real issues that genuinely affect people’s lives will make themselves known, and there’s no way of avoiding that.

David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

US Midterm Elections: Live Results Tracker

The Democrats has swept the midterm elections with a blue wave that has swept Republicans out of power, gaining control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. 

By Digital Storytelling Team

Millions of Americans have cast their ballots in the US midterm elections, with control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives at stake.

We will be publishing results here as soon as the races are called by the Associated Press in the United States.

In short, this is what’s at stake: the Democrats need to win 218 seats to gain control of the House – a total they are almost certain to reach. And in the Senate, the Democrats need to win net four seats (51 in total). The first Senate results to watch will be in New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina and Ohio.

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Democrats Likely to Gain Control of Congress in US Midterm Elections as Senate Lead Expands

Will the Democrats wrest control in the Congress and Senate from the Trump-controlled Republican party today? 

By Adrian Beaumont

The Democrats have an 82% chance of gaining control of the Senate in the US midterm elections and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in US analyst Nate Silver’s forecast model. In the last week, there has been clear movement to Democrats in the Senate.

We should know later today if the Democrats have wrested control of Congress from the Republicans – but it’s still far from clear exactly how things will play out.

Democrats lead Republicans by 9.4 points on the generic ballot, and President Donald Trump’s net approval is -20.4, but it has rebounded from lows below -24. If Republicans do better than expected in the polls, a drop in petrol prices since late September is likely to be responsible. However, the stock market has tanked in the last two trading sessions.

But with Democrats holding only modest leads in the polling in many Senate contests, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes – from a narrow Republican majority to a big Democratic majority.

Trump’s ratings

In Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -20.4. Currently, 58.8% of Americans disapprove of his performance and 38.4% approve. Trump’s net approval had fallen to a new low of -24.3 on October 21 before rising. It’s now at its highest since mid-September.

Trump’s net approval was -23.3 in my October 26 article. It’s below any past president since Harry Truman at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -11.2.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -12.1 on immigration, -27.0 on trade, -28.6 on the economy and -44.2 on inflation.

Since my October 26 analysis, Trump’s net approval on all issues has improved one to four points, with his net approval on inflation up five points in the last two weeks.

Trump’s ratings are worse if his approval is sorted into strong and weak approval and disapproval. Currently, 48.6% of Americans strongly disapprove of his performance, 20.5% strongly approve, 18.0% weakly approve and 10.2% weakly disapprove. That gives him a net strong approval of -28.2.

People who strongly approve or disapprove of Trump will be more motivated to vote at the midterms.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Currently, 56.5% of Americans are opposed to the Iran war, while 35.9% support it, for a net support of -20.6. This compares to -18.9 in my October 26 article.

Midterm elections on Wednesday

All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with results coming in Tuesday night on the US east coast (late Wednesday morning AEDT).

In the 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over the Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Due to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats need at least a net four-seat gain to win control of the Senate.

As I previously wrote, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance to win the House majority.

The Senate is more skewed towards the Republicans as every state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 52.8–43.4 lead over Republicans, a 9.4-point margin. (This is slightly lower than the 9.5-point margin in my October 26 analysis).

Silver’s model gives the Democrats an 82% chance to win the Senate and a 96% chance to win the House (it was respectively 75% and 95% on October 26). This is a new high for Democrats in the Senate this cycle. Democratic chances of winning the Senate had fallen to a low of 50% on September 7, and their chances of winning the House had dropped to 81% on September 3.

While the uniform swing indicates Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver’s model has Democrats as the favourites to win with a five to six point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by two to three points.

Democrats lead Republicans by one to four points in polls of the key toss-up Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Ohio. Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024. However, Democrats only lead by four to five points in Republican-held Maine and Democratic-held Michigan. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024, while Trump only won Michigan by 1.4 points.

In South Carolina and Nebraska, Republicans only lead in polling for the Senate races by about one point. If the Democrats have a great election night, they will win all the Senate seats where they currently lead, as well as South Carolina. An independent (Dan Osborn) could also expect to win in Nebraska. That would give Democrats a 55–44 Senate majority, plus one for Osborn.

However, Democrats only lead by more than five points in one Republican-held Senate seat (North Carolina). If the polls are systematically overstating Democrats by four points, North Carolina could be the Democrats’ only gain, for a 52–48 Republican Senate majority.

The large majority of elections in the US use the first-past-the-post system. Usually, this has little impact as minor party candidates get under 2% of votes in US elections. But in Montana, Silver’s aggregate has Republican Kurt Alme on 41.2%, independent Seth Bodnar on 32.6% and Democrat Alani Bankhead on 17.0%. Preferential voting could give Bodnar a much better chance at victory.

Poll closing times in key Senate contests

Some states and key moments on Wednesday AEDT will be:

• At 10am, the first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky. Early counting there will give observers an idea of how much damage Democrats are doing to Republicans in their rural strongholds

• At 11am, polls close in South Carolina and Florida’s eastern zone. Counting in Florida will be fast. In South Carolina, Republican incumbent Senator Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 1.3 points in Silver’s aggregate, and in Florida, Republican incumbent Senator Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 5.9 points

• At 11:30am, polls close in Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted by 3.0 points

• At noon, polls close in Maine and in Texas’, Kansas’ and Michigan’s eastern zones. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.5 points; in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall by 3.3 points; in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 4.7 points; and in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins by 4.0 points

• At 1pm, polls close in Iowa, Nebraska and Louisiana. In Iowa’s Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by 0.7 points. In Nebraska, Republican incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts leads independent Dan Osborn by 0.8 points (without a Democrat in the race). In Louisiana, Republican Julia Letlow leads Democrat Jamie Davis by 3.9 points

• At 4pm, polls close in Alaska’s eastern time zone, with polls closing in the western part of the state an hour later. Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan by 2.6 points.

Poll closing times listed here are from The Green Papers. I’ve included all Senate contests where Silver’s aggregate is within five points. Some states are split across two time zones. In this case, polls in the leading time zone usually close an hour before those in the trailing zone.

The earliest statewide races can be called is when all polls are closed.

Economic data

Americans head to the polls this week at a difficult time for the economy.

Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.17 a gallon for regular petrol – historically high but down from US$4.29 a gallon in my October 26 analysis and US$4.48 on September 25. Owing to profits and taxes, the retail price of petrol will be higher than the commodity price.

The commodity price of petrol had surged from a low of US$2.99 a gallon on August 27 to US$3.59 on September 23. The price today has crashed 8.1% to US$2.90, the lowest since early August.

I previously reported there had been similar surges in the price of oil, but that surge hasn’t yet carried over to the petrol price, but today’s oil price slump has carried over. On election day, the petrol price will be much cheaper than in late September.

In last night’s session, the benchmark US S&P stock market index dropped a further 0.5%, following a 1.8% slump last Friday, to fall to its lowest level since July 31. It’s down 3.6% from the October 6 peak, but still up 8.6% from the week before the Iran war began in late February and up 14.4% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March. Some of the gloss has come off the AI boom.

In September, personal income increased by 0.2%, but expenditures increased by 0.5%. The personal savings rate was down 0.2% since August to 3.8%, its lowest since October 2022.

In the September quarter, GDP increased 3.4% in annualised terms (0.85% in quarter on quarter terms). GDP growth was up from 2.2% annualised in the June quarter.

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

The Shape of Things to Come: How Paris Street Style is Setting the Trends for the Year Ahead

Australian actor Aubri Ibrag (The Buccaneer's Lizzie) in Paris wearing a draped, deep-blue Zimmerman short dress outside their SS27 show. Photograph (above) by Brittany Scott for DAM.

What will we be wearing in the year ahead? Earlier this month, before the French capital became a battleground, Paris Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2027 offered some compelling clues, from sculptural jackets and elegantly draped jersey to sharply tailored denim, exposed lingerie and bold colour combinations. Isabella Lancellotti examines the looks setting the agenda for the season ahead. Photography by Brittany Scott 

Portuguese model Kika Gomes wearing a

draped, ruched  and asymmetric jersey 

Balmain mini dress in Green Anis.

She attended the show in Paris.

LOOKING beyond the spectacle in Paris' crowded avenues and alleys during fashion week, we decode the street-style trends poised to shape the coming year and the individuals already making them their own. 

At runway shows by Balmain, Balenciaga, Lanvin, Zimmermann, Vivienne Westwood and Loewe, the streetstyle outside exhibited the emerging directions on an international cast of fashionistas: from Uma Thurman and Jessica Alba to Heart Evangelista and Jeanne Damas. 

Although Paris Fashion Week Spring/Summer 2027 is over, its most engaging ideas are already moving beyond the runway as the fashion crowd treat the streets as a laboratory for what comes next. 

The message was clear: dressing is becoming more individual, silhouettes more deliberate and the boundaries between daywear, eveningwear and underwear increasingly fluid.

Draping brought movement back into focus. Soft jersey fabric and fluid layers created a counterpoint to architectural shoulders and sculptural outerwear. The appeal is in the tension: clothes that follow the body but retain movement, with the textiles doing as much of the work as the cut. 

The jacket is the new centrepiece. Structured shoulders, cropped proportions, defined waists and sharply tailored shapes signalled a shift away from the oversized blazer. Worn with denim, skirts or unexpected combinations of textures, the fitted jacket offered a polished framework without making an outfit predictable. For the coming season, tailoring looks set to be less about conventional suiting and more about the power of a single, precisely cut piece.

Draping brought movement back with soft jersey and fluid layers creating a counterpoint to architectural shoulders and sculptural outerwear

English Singer Maisie Peters in Paris 

wearing a denim, cape top in Onyx Blue 

and a ruffled, high-waisted mini skirt, 

both by Zimmerman for SS27 in Paris.

Denim, meanwhile, is moving into more sophisticated territory. Sartorial denim combines the familiarity of jeans with the precision of tailoring, while straighter, slimmer cuts challenge the dominance of exaggerated volume. 

The forecast is not the disappearance of relaxed denim, but a broader choice of proportions, with the styling and construction determining whether a look feels casual, polished or deliberately subversive.

Colour and accessories provide another clue to the season ahead. Vivid reds, pinks, oranges, blues and greens bring energy to the Paris pavement, while animal prints, tactile surfaces, statement belts and distinctive jewellery give outfits a strong visual identity. 

Unexpected accessories and experimental styling also suggest that the most influential looks will be those that resist easy categorisation. The street-style wardrobe is becoming less uniform and more personal.

The people moving between the shows were equally diverse. Among those seen across the Paris fashion circuit and pictured in our gallery, were Hande Erçel, Karen Wazen, Jordan Rand, Emilia Silberg, Tan Suan and Georgina Mazzeo. Their presence reflected the global reach of Paris Fashion Week, where established fashion personalities, actors, models and digital tastemakers contribute to the visual culture surrounding the collections.

The jacket is the new centrepiece: structured shoulders, cropped proportions, defined waists and sharply tailored shapes 

American singer song-writer Charlotte

Lawrence wearing a lingerie-inspired,

Zimmerman sheer, black lace corset dress.

Lingerie-inspired dressing was another key trend worn by celebrities and stylists alike. Exposed bras, delicate camisoles and underwear worn as outerwear turn intimacy into a styling statement, suggesting that transparency and carefully considered exposure will remain central to the fashion conversation.

High profile names brought further attention to the week, including Zoey Deutch, Naomi Ackie, Eve Hewson and Manon Bresch. Other familiar faces included Katie Holmes, Naomi Watts, Poppy Delevingne, Paris Hilton and Jihoon, alongside Somrutai Rattanawaraha and Chloe Lecareux (all pictured below).

The strongest prediction for the season ahead is not one isolated trend but a new approach to combining them. Tailoring meets fluidity; denim becomes more precise; lingerie becomes visible; colour and accessories become more expressive. 

This season, street-style demonstrated, once more, that the future of fashion belongs not to those who follow a trend, but to those who know how to make it their own.

See more highlights from the Paris Spring/Summer 2027 Streetstyle: