The Oscars are not a Meritocracy - There is a Complex Formula for Winning

Chris Rock on stage at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood where the annual Academy Awards ceremony for the Oscars is held. Photograph: Adam Taylor/Disney General Entertainment. Cover picture of Luchen by Rahul Rekapalli for DAM.

By William Simon

Every January, Hollywood is overtaken by a massive Oscar prediction game, with studios, critics and commentators all playing a role in shaping the debate. But choosing a winner is more complicated than acknowledging a film’s artistic merit. The Oscars are decided on by a large peer group of some 10,000 Academy members, who confidentially vote for their colleagues in their specialised field. All eligible members, however, can vote on Best Picture.

In an era where nearly every major film is carefully packaged and marketed for profit, predicting an Oscar winner seems like a complex science.

The most crucial way a film positions itself as a contender relates to its status as a “prestige” picture. This is earned through highbrow themes, strategic release timing, critical acclaim, and plenty of lobbying.

What gives a film prestige?

Prestige pictures typically examine subjects that hit a nerve with Academy voters, such as injustice, intense relationships, and the triumph of the human spirit.

This thematic preoccupation is amply demonstrated through previous Best Picture winners including The King’s Speech (2010), 12 Years A Slave (2013), Philadelphia (1993) and Schindler’s List (1993). The only recent winner that seemed to deliberately reject such tropes was No Country for Old Men (2007).

This year’s top contenders also have these recognisable tropes. Hamnet, for instance, focuses on the misfortunes of William Shakespeare’s tragic family life.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet received eight Oscar nominations and won the 2026 Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture Drama. Focus Features

Meanwhile, Sinners (which has earned a record 16 nominations) is a thrilling genre-bender, combining supernatural horror with historical injustices endured by African Americans. Its originality places it in pole position for Best Original Screenplay.

Starring Michael B. Jordan as Stack (left) and his twin brother Smoke (right), Sinners became the most-awarded movie by a Black director at the BAFTAs. Warner Bros. Pictures

Timing, marketing and previous acclaim

The timing of a film’s release remains a key component of its prestige status. Most Oscar-nominated films are released between September and December. This keeps them fresh in voters’ minds during the nomination and voting periods.

Critical recognition also matters enormously. Voters are often fond of following the crowd and, as a result, will favour films that have already triumphed at significant events such as the Cannes Film Festival.

This year’s Best Actor race also illustrates how previous near misses, and commercial success, can build momentum for an actor.

Timothée Chalamet was previously nominated for A Complete Unknown (2024) and Call Me by Your Name (2017), and has been widely praised for his work in the blockbuster Dune franchise. This makes him a top contender for this year’s Best Actor award, even though his character in Marty Supreme is an unlikable parasitic hustler.

Similarly, front-runner Paul Thomas Anderson seems poised to claim the Best Director prize, after 11 previous nominations in various categories. His film, One Battle After Another, also connects with the zeitgeist. The current headlines about ICE raids, immigration detention centres and police crackdowns make it ahead of its time.

Oscar-winning potential is also determined by what industry insiders call “positive buzz”. Creating this buzz is a strategic and expensive undertaking, funded by major studios, that propels certain films into awards contention.

Greta Gerwig’s Barbie (2023) was a good example. Warner Bros is reported to have matched the film’s production budget with an equally substantial marketing budget and secured more than 100 brand partnerships (including Airbnb and Burger King). “Pinkification” dominated social media and positioned the film as having significant cultural relevance.

20th Century Studios appear to be adopting a similar strategy for the upcoming The Devil Wears Prada 2.

Networks and lobbying

Professional networks allow certain films to benefit from what American sociologist Robert K. Merton called “cumulative advantage”. Applied here, this principle explains how established talent attracts more prestigious collaborators, producing films that Academy voters are more likely to take seriously, and therefore vote for. As a result, Oscar success becomes increasingly concentrated in the same elite circles.

The Academy’s newly introduced Achievement in Casting category is a good example of how collaborative advantage plays out in films with A-listers.

Consider Leonardo Di Caprio’s commanding presence in One Battle After Another, or the ongoing partnership between director Yorgos Lanthimos and actress Emma Stone. Stone’s cold and calculating character in Bugonia is a departure from her more empathetic roles, while Di Caprio’s fallible anti-hero father is equally far removed from previous “leading man” characters.

When famous actors play against type, they generate conversations that amplify a film’s visibility – creating awards-season talking points.

Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia has earned four Oscar nominations, with Emma Stone already a two-time winner. Universal Pictures International Australasia

Lobbying also has a role to play. Direct lobbying involves public relations ploys to embed a movie into the audience’s consciousness and, crucially, into the minds of Academy voters. This might look like issuing industry notices, setting up magazine features, screeners, previews, free ticket offers, and special events (such as question and answer sessions).

But there’s also a form of indirect lobbying, that is arguably more effective in planting favourable stories about a film, or denigrating opponents.

Shakespeare in Love’s Best Picture win over Saving Private Ryan in 1999 remains the best example of how an aggressive campaign can override merit. In this case the campaign was backed by Harvey Weinstein – then head of Miramax (and not yet a convicted sexual abuser) – who, among other things, resorted to badmouthing Saving Private Ryan to journalists.

Oscar prediction remains a science that combines art, commerce, marketing and – to some extent – merit. It’s a dazzling lottery that rewards not the “best” in Hollywood, but the more “probable”.

William Simon, Casual Lecturer (Education and English Departments), University of Tasmania

Paris Fashion Week: The Feather Forecast, Lùchen's Reclaimed Couture Takes Wing in the French Capital

The Lùchen presentation in Paris was the first for the New York designer. Photograph (above) and cover picture by Rahul Rekapalli for DAM 

At Paris Fashion Week, New York-based designer Lu Chen debuted her latest couture collection in the French capital. The presentation focused on sculptural silhouettes, layered textures and innovative surfaces constructed from reclaimed elements. Combining experimental fabrication with disciplined structure, Chen proposed a contemporary vision of couture, highlighting both the creative potential of reused materials and a new generation’s approach to craft and design. Story by Antonio Visconti. Photographs by Rahul Rekapalli

Designer Lu Chen with  

her new pieces in Paris.

AMID the elegant Belle Epoque salons on Boulevard de Courcelles in Paris, designer Lu Chen introduced her most recent work. Models struck poses among the mannequins and demonstrated how the designs challenge conventional ideas of couture. 

Presented during a sunny spring afternoon, the collection unfolded as a quiet study in material experimentation, where editors, journalists, photographers and buyers moved closely around the pieces to observe their intricate surfaces and unusual structures.

Rather than treating clothing as static form, the designer investigates how fabric and unconventional materials react when placed in dialogue with the human body. 

The silhouettes in this collection shift between restriction and release. Some pieces appear suspended around the figure in tight volumes, the body kept in carefully engineered shapes, while others fall into looser draped forms that respond to gravity and movement.

Lu Chen’s new work shows a designer intent on expanding the vocabulary of contemporary couture, with a fusion of recycled materials, delicate skill, and structural innovation

Feather-like materials create

an elegant tromp l'oeil effect.

Central to the collection is an exploration of feather-like textures. Instead of relying solely on natural plumage, Chen constructs elaborate surfaces from fragments of reclaimed textiles and synthetic materials. 

These small pieces are meticulously cut and assembled, creating layered fields that resemble feathers at a distance but reveal their composite origins up close. The resulting effect suggests a new kind of couture embellishment: one formed through accumulation and reconstruction rather than traditional ornament.

This dialogue between authenticity and artifice runs throughout the presentation. Real feathers appear sparingly, introducing a moment of softness and fragility among the denser, constructed surfaces. 

Their presence draws attention to the contrast between organic delicacy and the engineered textures built from reclaimed materials. In doing so, Chen subtly questions the hierarchy of preciousness that has historically defined couture craftsmanship.

Instead of relying on natural plumage, feather-like elements are created from fragments of reclaimed textiles and synthetic material which are central to the collection

Using recycled materials is

central to Lu Chen's ethos.

The material palette extends well beyond fabric. Recycled acrylic forms part of the structural framework in several garments, while unexpected elements, such as crushed shells, fragments resembling eggshell, and small glass spheres, are incorporated as textural accents. These details lend the pieces an almost geological quality, as if the garments had grown through layers of sediment rather than been assembled in an atelier.

Despite this experimental spirit, the collection remains grounded in a finely tailored approach to structure. Chen’s training at Parsons School of Design is evident in the precise manipulation of form. Panels are suspended, layered, and offset to create tension between rigidity and fluidity. In some looks, fabric cascades in weighted folds that shift with each step of the wearer; in others, sculptural shapes appear to hover slightly away from the body, suggesting both protection and distance.

What emerges is a vision of couture where each fragment, seam, and textile acts as evidence of the designer’s investigation into how clothing can evolve. As Paris Fashion Week continues to welcome a new generation of experimental voices, Chen’s presentation signals a designer intent on expanding the vocabulary of contemporary couture. Through its fusion of recycled materials, delicate skill, and structural innovation, Chen evokes a future in which luxury is not defined only by opulence, but by intelligence and imagination.

See more highlights from the Lùchen couture presentation during Paris Fashion Week 

Paris Fashion Week: Ghost Protocol Anrealage’s Futuristic Runway Where Clothing Becomes Code and Identity Becomes Fluid

Anrealage's scintillating designs lit up with lights embedded in the textiles, on the runway at IRCAM in Paris. 

At Paris Fashion Week, Kunihiko Morinaga delivered one of the season’s most intellectually charged shows, exploring unsettling territory between visibility and disappearance. Drawing on the cyberpunk philosophy of Ghost in the Shell, he imagined garments that could merge with their surroundings and dissolve into digital imagery. The result was thought-provoking, transforming fashion into a meditation on identity and the boundary between the real and the virtual. Story by Jeanne-Marie Cilento

The designs merged with the iridescent

background on the runway in Paris. 

AT a moment when technology is reshaping not only how we communicate but how we perceive ourselves, Japanese designer Kunihiko Morinaga continues to position fashion at the intersection of philosophy, science and spectacle. His new Autumn-Winter 2026/2027 collection, titled Ghost, is an ambitious exploration of visibility, identity and the increasingly porous boundary between the body and the digital world.

Held at IRCAM (Institut de Recherche et Coordination Acoustique/Musique), where science, architecture and the avant-garde arts regularly intersect, Kunihiko Morinaga staged one of the most intriguing and provocative shows of Paris Fashion Week. The designer’s collection evoked the shifting relationship with the human body in an increasingly digital age.

Founded in 1977 by composer Pierre Boulez, IRCAM has long served as one of the world’s leading laboratories for experimental sound and multimedia research. The complex, which also has spaces underground, has hosted generations of artists exploring the frontier between art and technology. Morinaga’s decision to present his collection here felt especially apt: like IRCAM’s composers and digital pioneers, the designer treats creativity as a form of research, using fashion to test ideas about perception, space and the future of human expression.

Morinaga has long approached fashion as experimental design, using clothing to explore philosophical questions about reality and illusion. This season he turned to the cyberpunk universe of Ghost in the Shell, a cultural touchstone that imagines a future where the boundaries between humans and machines dissolve. Translating that concept into fashion, the designer proposed garments that challenge the very idea of visibility.

The collision of retro glamour and futuristic technology created a visual tension that ran throughout the collection

Seventies references made an 

interesting combination with 

the futuristic designs. 

Yet Morinaga’s collection was not solely a technological demonstration. Beneath the digital spectacle lay a strong sense of form and craft. Many silhouettes were sculptural and protective, their rounded volumes recalling biological forms or futuristic armour. 

Others referenced the exuberant spirit of 1970s fashion, with flared trousers, layered structures and flamboyant ruffles introducing an unexpected note of theatricality. The collision of retro glamour and futuristic technology created a visual tension that ran throughout the collection.

Several looks appeared to merge with their surroundings, their surfaces animated by shifting patterns and projected imagery that responded to the environment around them. Instead of presenting clothing as a static object, Morinaga transformed it into a responsive interface. 

Dresses, coats and tailored pieces seemed to flicker between presence and absence as visual information flowed across their surfaces. At moments, the wearer appeared almost absorbed into the background, as though the body itself were dissolving into a digital landscape.

This illusion was achieved through an ambitious collaboration with Led Tokyo, whose advanced display systems allowed garments to function like moving screens. Thousands of tiny lights embedded within the fabric generated constantly changing imagery, enabling clothing to mimic surrounding patterns or display entirely new ones. The effect suggested a future in which garments operate less like textiles and more like dynamic media platforms.

Thousands of tiny lights embedded in the fabric generated changing imagery, enabling clothing to mimic surrounding patterns or display entirely new ones

The blurred, painterly effects made 

the designs seem out of focus.  

Prints played an equally important role in shaping the narrative. Psychedelic florals appeared alongside motifs reminiscent of circuit boards, digital code and fragmented imagery, evoking the visual overload of contemporary life on multiple screens.

Some fabrics carried painterly effects that seemed almost blurred, as if the images themselves were slipping in and out of focus. 

These textiles were produced using advanced printing methods developed by Kyocera, allowing highly detailed imagery to be rendered while significantly reducing water consumption in the production process.

The setting amplified the conceptual drama. As projections moved across IRCAM’s interior, garments and environment began to interact in unpredictable ways.

Models appeared at times sharply defined, at other moments nearly invisible against the shifting visual backdrop. The runway became a constantly transforming field where clothing, architecture and technology blurred into a single immersive experience.

In a world increasingly mediated by screens, data and digital environments, the collection suggested that the human presence may no longer be fixed 

Romance and history meet in this enchanting

 jacket: futuristic in construction but 16th 

Century in silhouette 

Morinaga founded Anrealage in 2003, combining the words “real,” “unreal” and “age” to describe his vision of contemporary fashion. Over the past two decades he has steadily built a reputation for pushing the boundaries of what clothing can be, frequently merging traditional craftsmanship with experimental technology.

With Ghost, that inquiry reached a new level of sophistication. Rather than simply presenting futuristic garments, Morinaga posed a deeper question about identity itself. 

In a world increasingly mediated by screens, data and digital environments, the collection suggested that the human presence may no longer be fixed or easily defined. Fashion, in this context, becomes a powerful tool for exploring how we appear.  

In the end, the collection lingered as a haunting thought experiment. If clothing can dissolve the body into its surroundings, what remains of the self? 

Morinaga’s answer is deliberately ambiguous. Somewhere between presence and absence, between human and machine, fashion reveals a new territory, one where identity flickers like light across a screen.

See more highlights from Kunihiko Morinaga's Anrealage AW26/27 collection in Paris